Bioeconomics and Management of a Mixed-Stock....
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GRANT NUMBER:  NA46FD0353          NMFS NUMBER: 93-AKR-008

REPORT TITLE:  Bioeconomics and Management of a Mixed-Stock Sequential Fishery under Uncertainty

AUTHOR:  Criddle. Keith R.

PUBLISH DATE: February 1, 1996

AVAILABLE FROM:  National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Region, P.O. Box 21668, Juneau, AK 99802.  PHONE: (907) 586-7224


Management of the salmon fishery on the Yukon River is complicated by the lack of accurate preseason forecasts, limited information on the determinants of the dynamics of unit stocks, harvesting effort directed at a mixture of stocks, and the sequential availability of the returning fish to subsistence, commercial, and sport fishermen in Alaska and Canada.  A static stochastic simulation model was developed and used to examine the consequences of eight alternative strategies for setting commercial catch limits. The merit of each strategy was judged by three criteria: probability of satisfying escapement objectives, probability of simultaneously satisfying escapement and subsistence harvest objectives, and the probability of also reaching commercial harvest goals. The results indicate that subsistence and commercial catch objectives for chinook and coho salmon cannot be consistently achieved in the upper Yukon River unless catches in the lower Yukon River are restricted below their 1980-1994 average. The model indicates that even when lower Yukon commercial catches of chum salmon are reduced below their 1980-1994 average, it may not be possible to meet escapement objectives in the upper Yukon River drainage. in addition, the simulation model was used to explore the effects of reduced interception of Yukon River chum salmon and increased escapement of chinook salmon into Canada. Even with greatly increased returns of chum salmon, catch and escapement goals for the upper Yukon cannot be consistently achieved without restricting fisheries on the lower Yukon. similarly, increased escapements of chinook to Canada cannot be consistently achieved without restricting commercial fisheries in the lower Yukon to catches below their recent (1980-1994) average.  

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