GRANT
NUMBER:
NA46FD0353
NMFS NUMBER:
93-AKR-008
REPORT
TITLE:
Bioeconomics and Management of a Mixed-Stock Sequential
Fishery under Uncertainty
AUTHOR:
Criddle. Keith R.
PUBLISH
DATE:
February
1, 1996
AVAILABLE
FROM: National
Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Region, P.O. Box 21668,
Juneau, AK 99802. PHONE: (907) 586-7224
ABSTRACT

Management
of the salmon fishery on the Yukon River is complicated
by the lack of accurate preseason forecasts, limited information
on the determinants of the dynamics of unit stocks, harvesting
effort directed at a mixture of stocks, and the sequential
availability of the returning fish to subsistence, commercial,
and sport fishermen in Alaska and Canada. A static
stochastic simulation model was developed and used to
examine the consequences of eight alternative strategies
for setting commercial catch limits. The merit of each
strategy was judged by three criteria: probability of
satisfying escapement objectives, probability of simultaneously
satisfying escapement and subsistence harvest objectives,
and the probability of also reaching commercial harvest
goals. The results indicate that subsistence and commercial
catch objectives for chinook and coho salmon cannot be
consistently achieved in the upper Yukon River unless
catches in the lower Yukon River are restricted below
their 1980-1994 average. The model indicates that even
when lower Yukon commercial catches of chum salmon are
reduced below their 1980-1994 average, it may not be possible
to meet escapement objectives in the upper Yukon River
drainage. in addition, the simulation model was used to
explore the effects of reduced interception of Yukon River
chum salmon and increased escapement of chinook salmon
into Canada. Even with greatly increased returns of chum
salmon, catch and escapement goals for the upper Yukon
cannot be consistently achieved without restricting fisheries
on the lower Yukon. similarly, increased escapements of
chinook to Canada cannot be consistently achieved without
restricting commercial fisheries in the lower Yukon to
catches below their recent (1980-1994) average.