Table 13

Table 13. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (alternative catch scenario proposed by Haist) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	15899	0.17	15092	0.14
R	0.05	0.55	0.06	0.55
C₀	374	0.42	361	0.44
N₁₉₉₈	2952	0.25	3986	0.29
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.19	0.25	0.27	0.26
MSC	187	0.43	217	0.42
RY₁₉₉₈	109	0.49	---	---

		Prager form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.26	0.52	0.24	1
(2008)	10	0.23	0.45	0.43	0.76
	20	0.19	0.37	0.64	0.36
	30	0.15	0.30	0.81	0.12
	40	0.11	0.22	0.90	0.04
	50	0.07	0.14	0.96	0.01
20-year	0	0.36	0.72	0.07	1
(2018)	10	0.29	0.57	0.29	0.83
	20	0.20	0.40	0.60	0.40
	30	0.11	0.22	0.84	0.14
	40	0.04	0.08	0.94	0.04
	50	0.01	0.03	0.98	0.01
30-year	0	0.47	0.94	0.03	1
(2028)	10	0.35	0.70	0.23	0.85
	20	0.21	0.42	0.59	0.42
	30	0.09	0.18	0.84	0.14
	40	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.04
	50	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 14. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (with the upper bound for K=20x10⁶ individuals) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	9460	0.22	9565	0.22
r	0.08	0.67	0.08	0.67
C₀	300	0.42	305	0.43
N₁₉₉₈	1307	0.28	1992	0.32
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.14	0.26	0.21	0.28
MSC	160	0.43	162	0.43
RY₁₉₉₈	70	0.48	---	---

		Prager form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.23	0.46	0.45	1
(2008)	10	0.18	0.36	0.69	0.65
	20	0.12	0.24	0.88	0.22
	30	0.06	0.12	0.96	0.05
	40	0.02	0.04	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0
20-year	0	0.38	0.76	0.15	1
(2018)	10	0.26	0.53	0.49	0.72
	20	0.12	0.24	0.80	0.25
	30	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.05
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0
30-year	0	0.52	1.04	0.06	1
(2028)	10	0.35	0.69	0.39	0.74
	20	0.14	0.28	0.77	0.26
	30	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.05
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 15. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (with the upper bound for K=20x10⁶ and 12x10⁶individuals, respectively) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review		Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	K=20x10⁶				K=12x10⁶
K	3649	0.48	4031	0.49	3560	0.43	3936	0.44
r	0.11	0.92	0.11	0.69	0.11	0.89	0.12	0.69
C₀	207	0.70	226	0.61	197	0.68	227	0.60
N₁₉₉₈	974	0.70	1347	0.82	977	0.68	1299	0.72
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.28	0.50	0.34	0.45	0.29	0.50	0.34	0.43
MSC	85	0.67	96	0.56	81	0.64	97	0.56
RY₁₉₉₈	61	0.69	---	---	59	0.68	---	---

		Prager form (K=20x10⁶)					Prager form (K=12x10⁶)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.48	0.96	0.09	1		0.48	0.95	0.09	1
(2008)	10	0.45	0.91	0.13	0.96		0.45	0.90	0.13	0.96
	20	0.42	0.84	0.18	0.85		0.42	0.84	0.18	0.85
	30	0.38	0.77	0.25	0.72		0.38	0.76	0.25	0.71
	40	0.35	0.70	0.32	0.58		0.35	0.69	0.31	0.58
	50	0.31	0.62	0.40	0.46		0.31	0.62	0.39	0.46
20-year	0	0.64	1.28	0.03	1		0.64	1.28	0.03	1
(2018)	10	0.59	1.18	0.07	0.97		0.59	1.18	0.08	0.97
	20	0.53	1.06	0.15	0.87		0.53	1.05	0.15	0.87
	30	0.46	0.92	0.23	0.73		0.46	0.92	0.24	0.73
	40	0.39	0.79	0.33	0.59		0.39	0.79	0.34	0.59
	50	0.33	0.66	0.44	0.46		0.33	0.66	0.44	0.46
30-year	0	0.75	1.50	0.01	1		0.75	1.50	0.02	1
(2028)	10	0.68	1.36	0.05	0.98		0.68	1.37	0.05	0.97
	20	0.60	1.20	0.13	0.87		0.60	1.20	0.13	0.88
	30	0.51	1.03	0.23	0.74		0.51	1.02	0.24	0.73
	40	0.43	0.85	0.35	0.59		0.43	0.85	0.35	0.59
	50	0.35	0.70	0.47	0.46		0.35	0.70	0.46	0.46

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 16. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (with the upper bound for K=20x10⁶ and 12x10⁶individuals, respectively) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review		Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	K=20x10⁶				K=12x10⁶
K	9292	0.49	8411	0.53	6692	0.35	6445	0.35
r	0.15	0.88	0.14	0.80	0.16	0.90	0.14	0.81
C₀	266	0.40	246	0.41	251	0.41	235	0.39
N₁₉₉₈	5862	0.83	4222	0.84	3173	0.83	2766	0.85
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.54	0.52	0.47	0.56	0.43	0.61	0.39	0.57
MSC	330	0.99	226	0.63	243	0.92	186	0.61
RY₁₉₉₈	175	0.50	---	---	148	0.57	---	---

		Prager form (K=20x10⁶)					Prager form (K=12x10⁶)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.69	1.38	0.04	1		0.61	1.23	0.05	1
(2008)	10	0.67	1.33	0.07	0.97		0.58	1.17	0.10	0.95
	20	0.63	1.27	0.13	0.88		0.54	1.08	0.17	0.83
	30	0.60	1.20	0.18	0.77		0.49	0.99	0.26	0.70
	40	0.56	1.13	0.23	0.67		0.45	0.90	0.33	0.56
	50	0.53	1.07	0.28	0.60		0.41	0.82	0.40	0.46
20-year	0	0.81	1.61	0.01	1		0.76	1.52	0.01	1
(2018)	10	0.76	1.52	0.04	0.98		0.70	1.40	0.06	0.97
	20	0.70	1.40	0.10	0.89		0.62	1.25	0.14	0.85
	30	0.64	1.28	0.19	0.78		0.54	1.08	0.25	0.71
	40	0.58	1.17	0.26	0.68		0.47	0.93	0.36	0.57
	50	0.54	1.08	0.31	0.6		0.41	0.81	0.44	0.47
30-year	0	0.87	1.75	0	1		0.84	1.69	0	1
(2028)	10	0.82	1.63	0.03	0.98		0.77	1.54	0.04	0.97
	20	0.74	1.49	0.10	0.90		0.68	1.35	0.13	0.86
	30	0.66	1.32	0.19	0.79		0.57	1.15	0.26	0.72
	40	0.59	1.19	0.27	0.68		0.48	0.96	0.37	0.58
	50	0.54	1.08	0.33	0.60		0.41	0.82	0.47	0.47

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 17. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (with the CV for r divided by two) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	8491	0.16	---	---	3574	0.46	---	---
r	0.10	0.35	0.10	---	0.11	0.37	0.12	---
C₀	293	0.41	---	---	222	0.72	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1163	0.26	---	---	952	0.67	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.14	0.25	0.21	---	0.28	0.49	0.35	---
MSC	203	0.23	---	---	98	0.53	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	89	0.30	134	---	69	0.51	74	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.27	0.53	0.23	1		0.49	0.99	0.04	1
(2008)	10	0.21	0.42	0.53	0.95		0.47	0.94	0.06	1
	20	0.14	0.28	0.82	0.39		0.43	0.87	0.11	0.97
	30	0.07	0.14	0.95	0.06		0.40	0.79	0.16	0.89
	40	0.03	0.05	0.99	0.01		0.36	0.71	0.23	0.76
	50	0.01	0.03	1	0		0.32	0.63	0.31	0.62
20-year	0	0.48	0.96	0.01	1		0.71	1.42	0	1
(2018)	10	0.35	0.69	0.20	0.98		0.66	1.32	0.01	1
	20	0.16	0.33	0.67	0.45		0.59	1.18	0.05	0.98
	30	0.04	0.07	0.94	0.07		0.52	1.04	0.12	0.90
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.44	0.89	0.21	0.77
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.37	0.73	0.33	0.63
30-year	0	0.68	1.36	0	1		0.84	1.69	0	1
(2028)	10	0.50	1	0.09	0.99		0.79	1.57	0.01	1
	20	0.21	0.42	0.60	0.46		0.71	1.42	0.03	0.98
	30	0.04	0.07	0.93	0.07		0.61	1.23	0.11	0.90
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.51	1.03	0.21	0.77
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.41	0.83	0.34	0.63

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 17 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (with the CV for r divided by two) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	9293	0.52	---	---
r	0.13	0.37	0.14	---
C₀	271	0.39	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	5931	0.85	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.53	0.50	0.55	---
MSC	291	0.58	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	192	0.44	196	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.72	1.43	0.01	1
(2008)	10	0.69	1.38	0.04	1
	20	0.65	1.31	0.08	0.96
	30	0.62	1.23	0.14	0.85
	40	0.58	1.16	0.21	0.76
	50	0.55	1.09	0.26	0.68
20-year	0	0.86	1.72	0	1
(2018)	10	0.81	1.63	0.01	1
	20	0.75	1.50	0.05	0.96
	30	0.68	1.36	0.13	0.87
	40	0.61	1.23	0.22	0.77
	50	0.56	1.13	0.28	0.69
30-year	0	0.94	1.87	0	1
(2028)	10	0.89	1.77	0	1
	20	0.81	1.63	0.04	0.97
	30	0.72	1.44	0.13	0.87
	40	0.64	1.28	0.22	0.77
	50	0.58	1.15	0.29	0.69

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 18. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (mean r=0.07 and K=12x10⁶individuals) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV		CV

K	4124	0.42	4516		0.40
r	0.06	0.85	0.07		0.76
C₀	201	0.64	223		0.58
N₁₉₉₈	1060	0.68	1466		0.69
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.27	0.51	0.33		0.44
MSC	59	0.69	70		0.60
RY₁₉₉₈	41	0.73	---		---

		Prager form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²		N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.38		0.75	0.17	1
(2008)	10	0.35		0.70	0.23	0.89
	20	0.32		0.64	0.31	0.68
	30	0.29		0.58	0.39	0.49
	40	0.26		0.51	0.46	0.35
	50	0.23		0.45	0.54	0.24
20-year	0	0.50		0.99	0.07	1
(2018)	10	0.44		0.88	0.17	0.91
	20	0.38		0.76	0.28	0.70
	30	0.31		0.63	0.40	0.51
	40	0.25		0.51	0.51	0.37
	50	0.20		0.40	0.61	0.24
30-year	0	0.60		1.20	0.04	1
(2028)	10	0.52		1.04	0.13	0.92
	20	0.43		0.85	0.26	0.71
	30	0.34		0.67	0.42	0.51
	40	0.26		0.52	0.55	0.37
	50	0.19		0.39	0.65	0.25

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K