Table 19

Table 19. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (equal weights) with and without the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers and those obtained using two weighting schemes in WINBUGS (see text for details). Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Punt’s review		Prager form		Discrete form		Winbugs¹		Winbugs²
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	8612	0.27	9474	0.20	10127	0.18	9734	0.25	10710	0.27
r	0.11	0.90	0.07	0.72	0.07	0.72	0.08	0.48	0.08	0.49
C₀	355	0.51	373	0.41	421	0.45	363	0.43	442	0.46
N₁₉₉₈	1794	0.31	2112	0.47	1948	0.50	1928	0.37	2137	0.40
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.21	0.26	0.22	0.37	0.19	0.44	0.20	0.29	0.20	0.31
MSC	197	0.44	160	0.50	170	0.50	191	0.37	208	0.38
RY₁₉₉₈	130	0.56	104	0.62	108	0.57	---	---	---	---

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC³	N_fin/K⁴	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.34	0.68	0.12	1		0.33	0.66	0.26	1
(2008)	10	0.30	0.60	0.36	0.74		0.28	0.55	0.39	0.92
	20	0.24	0.49	0.49	0.43		0.22	0.45	0.46	0.47
	30	0.19	0.38	0.60	0.26		0.17	0.34	0.66	0.30
	40	0.14	0.28	0.72	0.15		0.13	0.25	0.82	0.14
	50	0.10	0.21	0.8	0.09		0.09	0.18	0.86	0.08
20-year	0	0.49	0.98	0.05	1		0.48	0.96	0.05	1
(2018)	10	0.39	0.78	0.29	0.76		0.38	0.75	0.34	0.92
	20	0.28	0.56	0.48	0.45		0.27	0.53	0.47	0.47
	30	0.18	0.36	0.67	0.27		0.17	0.34	0.68	0.30
	40	0.11	0.23	0.77	0.16		0.10	0.20	0.85	0.14
	50	0.07	0.13	0.86	0.09		0.06	0.12	0.89	0.08
30-year	0	0.61	1.22	0.01	1		0.6	1.19	0.02	1
(2028)	10	0.47	0.94	0.26	0.76		0.46	0.92	0.31	0.92
	20	0.31	0.62	0.47	0.45		0.31	0.63	0.47	0.47
	30	0.19	0.38	0.68	0.27		0.19	0.38	0.69	0.30
	40	0.11	0.22	0.80	0.17		0.10	0.19	0.84	0.14
	50	0.06	0.12	0.89	0.09		0.06	0.12	0.90	0.08

¹ Using one MLE for q for each series, 1 s², 1 t² for each series; ² Using one MLE for q for each series, 1 s², 1 t² for all series; ³ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch; ⁴ N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 20. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (equal weights) with and without the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers and those obtained using two weighting schemes in WINBUGS (see text for details). Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Punt’s review		Prager form		Discrete form		Winbugs¹		Winbugs²
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	3526	0.41	3296	0.42	3383	0.48	8904	0.54	4590	0.57
r	0.11	0.70	0.10	0.82	0.10	0.81	0.10	0.45	0.09	0.47
C₀	200	0.54	161	0.57	161	0.59	156	0.56	193	0.56
N₁₉₉₈	991	0.62	1011	0.69	1060	1.09	3609	0.79	1593	1.02
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.29	0.41	0.31	0.45	0.31	0.49	0.41	0.49	0.33	0.46
MSC	82	0.48	71	0.48	72	0.51	210	0.70	96	0.62
RY₁₉₉₈	62	0.49	55	0.54	56	0.52	---	---	---	---

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC³	N_fin/K⁴	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.49	0.99	0.06	1		0.51	1.02	0.06	1
(2008)	10	0.47	0.93	0.09	0.96		0.47	0.94	0.10	0.98
	20	0.43	0.86	0.15	0.86		0.43	0.87	0.15	0.88
	30	0.39	0.79	0.21	0.71		0.39	0.79	0.22	0.74
	40	0.35	0.71	0.29	0.56		0.36	0.71	0.29	0.58
	50	0.32	0.63	0.36	0.43		0.32	0.63	0.37	0.44
20-year	0	0.65	1.30	0.02	1		0.66	1.33	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.60	1.20	0.05	0.98		0.60	1.20	0.06	0.98
	20	0.53	1.06	0.12	0.88		0.54	1.07	0.12	0.88
	30	0.46	0.92	0.22	0.72		0.46	0.93	0.22	0.74
	40	0.39	0.78	0.33	0.57		0.39	0.78	0.33	0.58
	50	0.32	0.64	0.44	0.43		0.32	0.65	0.43	0.44
30-year	0	0.76	1.51	0.01	1		0.77	1.53	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.69	1.38	0.04	0.98		0.69	1.38	0.04	0.98
	20	0.60	1.21	0.11	0.89		0.61	1.21	0.11	0.88
	30	0.51	1.02	0.22	0.73		0.51	1.03	0.22	0.74
	40	0.41	0.83	0.35	0.57		0.42	0.84	0.35	0.58
	50	0.33	0.65	0.47	0.44		0.33	0.67	0.47	0.44

Table 21. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (equal weights) with and without the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers and those obtained using two weighting schemes in WINBUGS (see text for details). Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Punt’s review		Prager form		Winbugs¹		Winbugs²
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	11970	0.35	12631	0.44	11700	0.38	12740	0.32
r	0.20	0.76	0.18	0.81	0.11	0.41	0.12	0.36
C₀	300	0.43	308	0.41	278	0.40	300	0.41
N₁₉₉₈	9557	0.46	9746	0.53	8944	0.57	10120	0.45
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.78	0.17	0.74	0.22	0.73	0.34	0.77	0.23
MSC	540	0.75	493	0.81	323	0.56	383	0.48
RY₁₉₉₈	248	0.21	237	0.26	---	---	---	---

		Prager form
Horizon	TAC³	N_fin/K⁴	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.88	1.75	0	1
(2008)	10	0.87	1.73	0	1
	20	0.85	1.70	0	0.99
	30	0.83	1.67	0	0.97
	40	0.82	1.64	0.01	0.95
	50	0.80	1.60	0.01	0.91
20-year	0	0.93	1.87	0	1
(2018)	10	0.92	1.83	0	1
	20	0.89	1.79	0	0.99
	30	0.87	1.74	0.01	0.98
	40	0.85	1.69	0.01	0.95
	50	0.82	1.65	0.02	0.91
30-year	0	0.96	1.92	0	1
(2028)	10	0.94	1.88	0	1
	20	0.91	1.83	0	0.99
	30	0.89	1.78	0.01	0.98
	40	0.86	1.72	0.01	0.95
	50	0.83	1.66	0.02	0.91

Table 22. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (with the beginning of the fishery in 1969) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9922	0.24	---	---	4223	0.51	---	---
r	0.08	0.66	0.08	---	0.12	0.91	0.11	---
C₀	296	0.41	---	---	218	0.74	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1253	0.29	---	---	964	0.69	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.13	0.26	0.19	---	0.25	0.55	0.31	---
MSC	173	0.41	---	---	101	0.78	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	71	0.47	107	---	66	0.79	71	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.22	0.45	0.51	1		0.44	0.89	0.15	1
(2008)	10	0.17	0.35	0.72	0.67		0.42	0.85	0.20	0.96
	20	0.11	0.23	0.89	0.22		0.39	0.78	0.26	0.85
	30	0.06	0.11	0.96	0.05		0.36	0.72	0.31	0.71
	40	0.02	0.04	0.99	0.01		0.33	0.66	0.37	0.59
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.30	0.59	0.43	0.47
20-year	0	0.38	0.76	0.19	1		0.61	1.21	0.05	1
(2018)	10	0.26	0.52	0.51	0.74		0.56	1.12	0.10	0.97
	20	0.12	0.24	0.81	0.25		0.50	1	0.19	0.86
	30	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.06		0.44	0.88	0.28	0.72
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.38	0.77	0.37	0.59
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.33	0.66	0.46	0.48
30-year	0	0.52	1.03	0.08	1		0.71	1.43	0.03	1
(2028)	10	0.35	0.70	0.40	0.76		0.65	1.31	0.07	0.97
	20	0.14	0.28	0.77	0.26		0.58	1.15	0.16	0.87
	30	0.04	0.07	0.94	0.06		0.50	0.99	0.27	0.72
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.42	0.84	0.37	0.60
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.35	0.70	0.48	0.48

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 22 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (with the beginning of the fishery in 1969) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	10871	0.54	---	---
r	0.15	0.84	0.16	---
C₀	275	0.41	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	7190	0.82	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.56	0.50	0.54	---
MSC	368	0.94	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	189	0.47	180	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.72	1.44	0.03	1
(2008)	10	0.70	1.40	0.06	0.98
	20	0.67	1.34	0.11	0.91
	30	0.64	1.28	0.15	0.82
	40	0.61	1.22	0.20	0.73
	50	0.58	1.16	0.24	0.66
20-year	0	0.83	1.66	0.01	1
(2018)	10	0.79	1.58	0.03	0.98
	20	0.74	1.48	0.08	0.92
	30	0.68	1.37	0.15	0.83
	40	0.63	1.27	0.21	0.74
	50	0.59	1.18	0.26	0.67
30-year	0	0.89	1.78	0	1
(2028)	10	0.84	1.68	0.02	0.98
	20	0.78	1.56	0.08	0.92
	30	0.71	1.42	0.15	0.83
	40	0.65	1.30	0.22	0.74
	50	0.60	1.20	0.27	0.67

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 23. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (K=20x10⁶individuals, only 8 CPUE series, and 1983 Early Rec data point removed), sandbar (K=12x10⁶individuals and 1983 "early Rec" CPUE point removed), and blacktip (K=12x10⁶individuals and Gulf Reef logs CPUE series removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review		Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	10091	0.23	10573	0.25	3363	0.39	3719	0.43
r	0.08	0.65	0.08	0.61	0.10	0.83	0.11	0.70
C₀	438	0.43	590	0.51	173	0.59	196	0.58
N₁₉₉₈	1603	0.37	1636	0.30	987	0.66	1319	0.72
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.16	0.33	0.16	0.30	0.30	0.45	0.36	0.41
MSC	172	0.43	179	0.42	74	0.51	87	0.52
RY₁₉₉₈	85	0.49	---	---	56	0.56	---	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.27	0.53	0.32	1		0.48	0.97	0.05	1
(2008)	10	0.22	0.44	0.52	0.76		0.46	0.92	0.09	0.97
	20	0.17	0.33	0.72	0.36		0.42	0.84	0.15	0.83
	30	0.11	0.22	0.86	0.13		0.39	0.77	0.23	0.71
	40	0.06	0.12	0.94	0.03		0.35	0.70	0.31	0.59
	50	0.03	0.07	0.97	0.01		0.31	0.62	0.36	0.49
20-year	0	0.42	0.84	0.11	1		0.65	1.29	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.32	0.64	0.35	0.81		0.59	1.19	0.04	0.98
	20	0.19	0.38	0.65	0.40		0.53	1.06	0.12	0.85
	30	0.08	0.16	0.86	0.14		0.46	0.92	0.22	0.72
	40	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.04		0.39	0.78	0.31	0.59
	50	0.02	0.03	0.98	0.01		0.33	0.66	0.40	0.49
30-year	0	0.56	1.12	0.04	1		0.76	1.51	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.41	0.82	0.27	0.83		0.69	1.37	0.03	0.98
	20	0.22	0.44	0.61	0.41		0.60	1.20	0.11	0.85
	30	0.08	0.17	0.85	0.14		0.51	1.02	0.23	0.72
	40	0.03	0.06	0.96	0.04		0.43	0.85	0.33	0.59
	50	0.01	0.03	0.99	0.01		0.35	0.69	0.44	0.49

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 23 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (K=20x10⁶individuals, only 8 CPUE series, and 1983 Early Rec data point removed), sandbar (K=12x10⁶individuals and 1983 "early Rec" CPUE point removed), and blacktip (K=12x10⁶individuals and Gulf logs CPUE series removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Haist’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	7504	0.62	5984	0.35
r	0.13	0.83	0.13	0.80
C₀	248	0.40	230	0.38
N₁₉₉₈	3471	1.34	2074	0.94
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.34	0.76	0.31	0.60
MSC	216	1.08	161	0.58
RY₁₉₉₈	117	0.70	---	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.52	1.04	0.11	1
(2008)	10	0.48	0.96	0.21	0.91
	20	0.43	0.85	0.33	0.71
	30	0.37	0.74	0.44	0.52
	40	0.32	0.64	0.53	0.39
	50	0.28	0.57	0.60	0.30
20-year	0	0.68	1.37	0.03	1
(2018)	10	0.61	1.21	0.12	0.94
	20	0.51	1.01	0.28	0.74
	30	0.40	0.81	0.43	0.54
	40	0.33	0.66	0.55	0.40
	50	0.28	0.56	0.63	0.31
30-year	0	0.79	1.58	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.69	1.38	0.09	0.95
	20	0.56	1.12	0.26	0.75
	30	0.43	0.86	0.43	0.54
	40	0.34	0.68	0.56	0.40
	50	0.28	0.56	0.64	0.31

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 24. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (all CPUE series with less than 5 data points removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9687	0.22	---	---	3707	0.40	---	---
r	0.07	0.67	0.08	---	0.10	0.79	0.11	---
C₀	305	0.42	---	---	190	0.68	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1547	0.35	---	---	1271	0.68	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.16	0.30	0.23	---	0.34	0.47	0.35	---
MSC	161	0.43	---	---	82	0.65	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	80	0.50	118	---	64	0.69	64	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.26	0.52	0.32	1		0.52	1.05	0.06	1
(2008)	10	0.21	0.43	0.54	0.73		0.50	1	0.09	0.98
	20	0.16	0.31	0.75	0.31		0.47	0.94	0.12	0.90
	30	0.10	0.20	0.88	0.09		0.44	0.87	0.16	0.74
	40	0.05	0.11	0.95	0.02		0.40	0.81	0.22	0.62
	50	0.03	0.06	0.98	0.01		0.37	0.74	0.28	0.50
20-year	0	0.41	0.82	0.10	1		0.67	1.35	0.01	1
(2018)	10	0.30	0.60	0.37	0.79		0.63	1.25	0.05	0.98
	20	0.17	0.34	0.69	0.34		0.57	1.14	0.10	0.90
	30	0.07	0.13	0.89	0.11		0.51	1.02	0.16	0.76
	40	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.02		0.45	0.90	0.24	0.63
	50	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.39	0.78	0.33	0.51
30-year	0	0.54	1.09	0.04	1		0.78	1.56	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.39	0.77	0.29	0.80		0.71	1.43	0.02	0.99
	20	0.19	0.39	0.67	0.35		0.64	1.27	0.09	0.91
	30	0.07	0.13	0.89	0.11		0.56	1.11	0.16	0.76
	40	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.02		0.48	0.95	0.26	0.64
	50	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.40	0.80	0.38	0.51

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 24 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (all CPUE series with less than 5 data points removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	11147	0.51	---	---
r	0.15	0.87	0.14	---
C₀	279	0.40	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	7739	0.73	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.61	0.43	0.46	---
MSC	381	0.92	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	194	0.44	147	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.75	1.51	0.02	1
(2008)	10	0.73	1.47	0.05	0.98
	20	0.71	1.42	0.08	0.92
	30	0.68	1.36	0.11	0.84
	40	0.65	1.30	0.15	0.77
	50	0.63	1.25	0.17	0.70
20-year	0	0.85	1.69	0	1
(2018)	10	0.81	1.62	0.03	0.99
	20	0.77	1.53	0.07	0.93
	30	0.72	1.44	0.12	0.85
	40	0.67	1.35	0.16	0.77
	50	0.64	1.27	0.20	0.70
30-year	0	0.90	1.80	0	1
(2028)	10	0.86	1.71	0.02	0.99
	20	0.80	1.60	0.06	0.93
	30	0.74	1.48	0.12	0.85
	40	0.69	1.37	0.17	0.77
	50	0.64	1.28	0.22	0.70

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 25. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (two MRFSS CPUE series removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9124	0.23	---	---	3342	0.44	---	---
r	0.08	0.70	0.09	---	0.09	0.80	0.11	---
C₀	298	0.42	---	---	162	0.66	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1076	0.30	---	---	857	0.85	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.12	0.27	0.20	---	0.26	0.56	0.39	---
MSC	170	0.44	---	---	66	0.59	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	64	0.48	109	---	45	0.67	67	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.21	0.43	0.57	0.99		0.41	0.82	0.16	1
(2008)	10	0.16	0.32	0.80	0.59		0.38	0.76	0.22	0.91
	20	0.09	0.18	0.93	0.15		0.34	0.68	0.31	0.74
	30	0.03	0.06	0.98	0.03		0.30	0.60	0.40	0.56
	40	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.26	0.52	0.49	0.41
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.22	0.45	0.56	0.30
20-year	0	0.37	0.75	0.21	1		0.57	1.13	0.06	1
(2018)	10	0.24	0.48	0.58	0.67		0.50	1	0.15	0.93
	20	0.09	0.17	0.87	0.18		0.43	0.85	0.26	0.76
	30	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.03		0.35	0.70	0.39	0.58
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.28	0.56	0.51	0.42
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.22	0.44	0.61	0.30
30-year	0	0.52	1.03	0.08	1		0.68	1.37	0.03	1
(2028)	10	0.32	0.65	0.46	0.70		0.60	1.19	0.11	0.93
	20	0.11	0.21	0.84	0.19		0.49	0.98	0.24	0.77
	30	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.03		0.39	0.77	0.39	0.58
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.30	0.59	0.53	0.42
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.22	0.45	0.63	0.30

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 25 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (two MRFSS CPUE series removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	8008	0.58	---	---
r	0.12	0.82	0.12	---
C₀	276	0.42	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	3737	1.24	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.36	0.74	0.37	---
MSC	211	0.99	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	121	0.72	122	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.51	1.03	0.17	1
(2008)	10	0.48	0.96	0.26	0.87
	20	0.43	0.86	0.35	0.67
	30	0.39	0.77	0.43	0.53
	40	0.35	0.70	0.49	0.43
	50	0.32	0.64	0.53	0.36
20-year	0	0.66	1.32	0.06	1
(2018)	10	0.59	1.17	0.17	0.90
	20	0.49	0.99	0.32	0.69
	30	0.42	0.83	0.43	0.54
	40	0.36	0.72	0.51	0.43
	50	0.32	0.64	0.56	0.36
30-year	0	0.76	1.52	0.02	1
(2028)	10	0.66	1.32	0.13	0.91
	20	0.54	1.08	0.30	0.70
	30	0.44	0.88	0.43	0.54
	40	0.37	0.74	0.52	0.44
	50	0.32	0.65	0.57	0.36

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K