Table 1

Table 1. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	9535	0.17	9690	0.23	9565	0.17	9458	0.18	9541	0.18
r	0.07	0.51	0.08	0.67	0.08	0.67	0.07	0.52	0.07	0.51
C₀	284	0.39	299	0.48	305	0.43	289	0.39	288	0.39
N₁₉₉₈	1385	0.25	2028	0.37	1992	0.32	1314	0.27	1229	0.29
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.15	0.24	0.21	0.31	0.21	0.28	0.14	0.25	0.13	0.27
MSC	149	0.38	168	0.43	162	0.43	156	0.37	155	0.38
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	106	0.52	---	---	69	0.42	78	0.40

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.22	0.45	0.45	1		0.23	0.46	0.40	1
(2008)	10	0.17	0.35	0.70	0.66		0.17	0.35	0.70	0.79
	20	0.11	0.23	0.90	0.19		0.11	0.23	0.91	0.24
	30	0.06	0.11	0.98	0.02		0.06	0.11	0.98	0.03
	40	0.02	0.04	0.99	0		0.02	0.05	1	0
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.03	1	0
20-year	0	0.37	0.73	0.14	1		0.37	0.74	0.13	1
(2018)	10	0.25	0.49	0.48	0.74		0.24	0.49	0.49	0.79
	20	0.10	0.20	0.83	0.22		0.10	0.20	0.84	0.24
	30	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.03		0.03	0.05	0.97	0.03
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0
30-year	0	0.51	1.02	0.04	1		0.51	1.03	0.04	1
(2028)	10	0.33	0.66	0.38	0.77		0.32	0.65	0.38	0.79
	20	0.11	0.22	0.80	0.23		0.11	0.22	0.80	0.24
	30	0.02	0.03	0.97	0.03		0.03	0.05	0.97	0.03
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 2. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	9535	0.17	9690	0.23	9565	0.17	9462	0.22	9501	0.21
r	0.07	0.51	0.08	0.67	0.08	0.67	0.08	0.68	0.07	0.68
C₀	284	0.39	299	0.48	305	0.43	300	0.42	298	0.42
N₁₉₉₈	1385	0.25	2028	0.37	1992	0.32	1307	0.28	1216	0.30
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.15	0.24	0.21	0.31	0.21	0.28	0.14	0.26	0.13	0.28
MSC	149	0.38	168	0.43	162	0.43	160	0.43	160	0.44
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	106	0.52	---	---	70	0.48	80	0.46

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.24	0.47	0.43	1		0.24	0.48	0.43	1
(2008)	10	0.18	0.37	0.68	0.66		0.18	0.36	0.69	0.77
	20	0.12	0.25	0.87	0.22		0.12	0.24	0.88	0.27
	30	0.06	0.12	0.96	0.05		0.06	0.12	0.96	0.05
	40	0.02	0.04	0.99	0.01		0.03	0.05	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.03	1	0
20-year	0	0.39	0.77	0.15	1		0.39	0.78	0.14	1
(2018)	10	0.27	0.54	0.48	0.73		0.26	0.53	0.50	0.77
	20	0.12	0.25	0.79	0.26		0.12	0.24	0.81	0.27
	30	0.03	0.06	0.95	0.05		0.04	0.08	0.95	0.05
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.01	0.03	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0
30-year	0	0.52	1.05	0.05	1		0.53	1.05	0.05	1
(2028)	10	0.35	0.70	0.38	0.75		0.34	0.69	0.40	0.77
	20	0.14	0.29	0.76	0.27		0.14	0.28	0.77	0.27
	30	0.03	0.07	0.95	0.06		0.04	0.08	0.95	0.05
	40	0.01	0.02	0.99	0.01		0.02	0.03	0.99	0.01
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 3. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	3265	0.32	3723	0.49	4031	0.49	3166	0.32	3227	0.34
r	0.10	0.70	0.11	0.71	0.11	0.69	0.10	0.74	0.10	0.74
C₀	170	0.54	190	0.62	226	0.61	166	0.54	165	0.56
N₁₉₉₈	924	0.45	1302	1.08	1347	0.82	823	0.48	836	0.53
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.29	0.39	0.34	0.48	0.34	0.45	0.27	0.41	0.27	0.45
MSC	71	0.55	88	0.67	96	0.56	71	0.62	70	0.55
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	68	0.54	---	---	53	0.75	52	0.59

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.45	0.90	0.09	1		0.47	0.95	0.08	1
(2008)	10	0.42	0.85	0.13	0.96		0.43	0.87	0.13	0.98
	20	0.39	0.77	0.21	0.82		0.39	0.79	0.19	0.86
	30	0.35	0.69	0.27	0.64		0.35	0.71	0.27	0.69
	40	0.31	0.62	0.35	0.49		0.31	0.62	0.36	0.52
	50	0.27	0.54	0.44	0.37		0.27	0.55	0.44	0.39
20-year	0	0.62	1.24	0.03	1		0.64	1.27	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.56	1.12	0.08	0.97		0.57	1.14	0.08	0.98
	20	0.49	0.98	0.17	0.84		0.50	1	0.15	0.86
	30	0.42	0.83	0.27	0.66		0.42	0.85	0.27	0.69
	40	0.34	0.69	0.39	0.50		0.35	0.69	0.39	0.52
	50	0.28	0.55	0.53	0.37		0.28	0.56	0.51	0.39
30-year	0	0.73	1.46	0.01	1		0.75	1.49	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.66	1.31	0.06	0.98		0.67	1.33	0.05	0.98
	20	0.56	1.12	0.15	0.84		0.57	1.15	0.14	0.86
	30	0.46	0.93	0.28	0.66		0.47	0.94	0.27	0.69
	40	0.37	0.73	0.42	0.50		0.37	0.75	0.41	0.52
	50	0.28	0.56	0.56	0.37		0.29	0.57	0.55	0.39

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 4. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	3265	0.32	3723	0.49	4031	0.49	3653	0.48	3679	0.54
r	0.10	0.70	0.11	0.71	0.11	0.69	0.11	0.96	0.12	1.00
C₀	170	0.54	190	0.62	226	0.61	207	0.71	200	0.71
N₁₉₉₈	924	0.45	1302	1.08	1347	0.82	976	0.70	1031	1.20
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.29	0.39	0.34	0.48	0.34	0.45	0.28	0.50	0.28	0.54
MSC	71	0.55	88	0.67	96	0.56	85	0.68	85	0.68
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	68	0.54	---	---	61	0.69	60	0.63

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.48	0.95	0.09	1		0.49	0.98	0.09	1
(2008)	10	0.45	0.90	0.13	0.96		0.46	0.91	0.13	0.98
	20	0.42	0.84	0.18	0.86		0.42	0.84	0.19	0.89
	30	0.38	0.76	0.25	0.72		0.38	0.77	0.25	0.74
	40	0.35	0.69	0.32	0.59		0.35	0.69	0.33	0.59
	50	0.31	0.62	0.40	0.47		0.31	0.62	0.40	0.46
20-year	0	0.64	1.28	0.03	1		0.65	1.29	0.03	1
(2018)	10	0.59	1.18	0.07	0.97		0.59	1.18	0.07	0.98
	20	0.53	1.05	0.14	0.87		0.52	1.05	0.14	0.89
	30	0.46	0.92	0.24	0.74		0.46	0.92	0.24	0.74
	40	0.40	0.79	0.33	0.60		0.39	0.78	0.34	0.59
	50	0.33	0.66	0.44	0.48		0.33	0.66	0.45	0.46
30-year	0	0.75	1.50	0.01	1		0.75	1.51	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.68	1.36	0.05	0.98		0.68	1.36	0.05	0.98
	20	0.60	1.20	0.12	0.87		0.60	1.20	0.13	0.89
	30	0.51	1.03	0.23	0.74		0.51	1.02	0.24	0.74
	40	0.43	0.86	0.35	0.60		0.42	0.84	0.36	0.59
	50	0.35	0.70	0.46	0.48		0.34	0.69	0.48	0.46

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 5. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	5527	0.31	9528	0.49	8411	0.53	5438	0.29	5423	0.29
r	0.12	0.70	0.15	0.82	0.14	0.80	0.12	0.70	0.12	0.70
C₀	229	0.37	268	0.42	246	0.41	222	0.36	223	0.36
N₁₉₉₈	1383	0.57	6083	0.83	4222	0.84	1348	0.56	1290	0.60
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.25	0.43	0.54	0.51	0.47	0.56	0.25	0.47	0.24	0.52
MSC	137	0.43	337	1.00	226	0.63	140	0.45	142	0.46
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	173	0.50	---	---	95	0.59	102	0.55

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.45	0.89	0.08	1		0.47	0.95	0.07	1
(2008)	10	0.40	0.80	0.16	0.95		0.42	0.83	0.15	0.98
	20	0.34	0.68	0.27	0.72		0.35	0.71	0.27	0.77
	30	0.28	0.56	0.41	0.47		0.29	0.58	0.41	0.52
	40	0.22	0.44	0.55	0.28		0.23	0.45	0.55	0.32
	50	0.17	0.34	0.66	0.16		0.17	0.35	0.66	0.18
20-year	0	0.64	1.29	0.02	1		0.67	1.33	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.56	1.12	0.08	0.97		0.57	1.14	0.08	0.98
	20	0.45	0.89	0.23	0.75		0.46	0.92	0.23	0.77
	30	0.32	0.64	0.42	0.49		0.34	0.68	0.41	0.52
	40	0.22	0.43	0.61	0.29		0.23	0.46	0.59	0.32
	50	0.14	0.28	0.75	0.16		0.15	0.3	0.74	0.18
30-year	0	0.77	1.54	0.01	1		0.78	1.56	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.66	1.33	0.05	0.97		0.67	1.35	0.06	0.98
	20	0.52	1.04	0.22	0.76		0.53	1.06	0.22	0.77
	30	0.36	0.71	0.43	0.50		0.38	0.75	0.42	0.52
	40	0.22	0.44	0.65	0.29		0.24	0.49	0.62	0.32
	50	0.14	0.27	0.81	0.16		0.15	0.29	0.80	0.18

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 6. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (baseline scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Punt’s review		Haist’s review		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	5527	0.31	9528	0.49	8411	0.53	10463	0.55	19488	0.76
r	0.12	0.70	0.15	0.82	0.14	0.80	0.15	0.89	0.13	0.86
C₀	229	0.37	268	0.42	246	0.41	272	0.40	278	0.41
N₁₉₉₈	1383	0.57	6083	0.83	4222	0.84	6942	0.83	15939	0.93
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.25	0.43	0.54	0.51	0.47	0.56	0.56	0.50	0.67	0.42
MSC	137	0.43	337	1.00	226	0.63	348	0.96	547	0.99
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	173	0.50	---	---	181	0.49	277	0.41

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.71	1.43	0.04	1		0.79	1.59	0.02	0.99
(2008)	10	0.69	1.38	0.07	0.97		0.77	1.54	0.05	0.98
	20	0.66	1.32	0.11	0.89		0.75	1.50	0.08	0.92
	30	0.63	1.25	0.16	0.80		0.72	1.45	0.12	0.84
	40	0.59	1.19	0.21	0.71		0.70	1.40	0.15	0.78
	50	0.56	1.13	0.25	0.62		0.68	1.35	0.18	0.71
20-year	0	0.82	1.64	0.01	1		0.87	1.74	0.01	0.99
(2018)	10	0.78	1.56	0.04	0.98		0.84	1.67	0.02	0.98
	20	0.73	1.45	0.09	0.90		0.80	1.59	0.07	0.92
	30	0.67	1.34	0.16	0.81		0.75	1.51	0.12	0.84
	40	0.61	1.23	0.23	0.71		0.71	1.43	0.16	0.78
	50	0.57	1.14	0.28	0.63		0.68	1.36	0.19	0.71
30-year	0	0.88	1.77	0	1		0.92	1.83	0	0.99
(2028)	10	0.83	1.66	0.03	0.98		0.88	1.75	0.02	0.98
	20	0.77	1.53	0.09	0.91		0.83	1.65	0.06	0.92
	30	0.69	1.39	0.16	0.81		0.77	1.54	0.12	0.84
	40	0.63	1.25	0.24	0.71		0.73	1.45	0.17	0.78
	50	0.57	1.15	0.29	0.63		0.69	1.37	0.20	0.71

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K