Table 26

Table 26. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex and sandbar (VIMS CPUE series removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9410	0.22	---	---	3999	0.48	---	---
r	0.08	0.66	0.08	---	0.12	0.85	0.13	---
C₀	308	0.42	---	---	133	0.56	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1123	0.29	---	---	2197	0.79	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.12	0.26	0.19	---	0.50	0.45	0.64	---
MSC	169	0.43	---	---	104	0.74	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	64	0.46	96	---	75	0.48	85	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.21	0.42	0.56	1		0.67	1.35	0.05	1
(2008)	10	0.16	0.31	0.79	0.62		0.65	1.31	0.06	0.97
	20	0.09	0.18	0.93	0.16		0.63	1.25	0.09	0.91
	30	0.03	0.07	0.99	0.03		0.60	1.20	0.11	0.84
	40	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.57	1.14	0.14	0.75
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.54	1.09	0.17	0.67
20-year	0	0.37	0.73	0.20	1		0.79	1.57	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.24	0.47	0.57	0.69		0.75	1.49	0.04	0.97
	20	0.09	0.17	0.87	0.19		0.70	1.40	0.08	0.92
	30	0.02	0.03	0.97	0.03		0.66	1.31	0.11	0.85
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.61	1.22	0.16	0.76
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.56	1.13	0.20	0.68
30-year	0	0.51	1.02	0.08	1		0.85	1.71	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.32	0.64	0.45	0.71		0.80	1.61	0.03	0.98
	20	0.10	0.21	0.83	0.20		0.75	1.50	0.07	0.93
	30	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.03		0.69	1.38	0.12	0.85
	40	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.63	1.26	0.17	0.76
	50	0.01	0.02	1	0		0.58	1.15	0.22	0.68

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 27. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex and blacktip (split all commercial and recreational CPUE series including 1993 in 1993) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Blacktip
K	10309	0.23	---	---	10639	0.55	---	---
r	0.07	0.68	0.08	---	0.15	0.87	0.15	---
C₀	306	0.43	---	---	275	0.40	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	2770	0.37	---	---	7170	0.81	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.27	0.30	0.28	---	0.57	0.49	0.54	---
MSC	168	0.43	---	---	360	0.95	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	128	0.51	143	---	184	0.49	173	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.41	0.82	0.04	1		0.72	1.43	0.04	1
(2008)	10	0.37	0.74	0.09	0.92		0.69	1.39	0.07	0.97
	20	0.33	0.65	0.20	0.65		0.66	1.33	0.12	0.88
	30	0.28	0.55	0.34	0.39		0.63	1.26	0.17	0.79
	40	0.23	0.45	0.50	0.21		0.60	1.20	0.21	0.71
	50	0.18	0.36	0.63	0.10		0.57	1.14	0.25	0.64
20-year	0	0.56	1.12	0.01	1		0.82	1.64	0.01	1
(2018)	10	0.48	0.96	0.06	0.94		0.78	1.56	0.04	0.98
	20	0.39	0.77	0.21	0.68		0.73	1.45	0.10	0.90
	30	0.28	0.57	0.43	0.41		0.67	1.34	0.17	0.80
	40	0.19	0.37	0.64	0.21		0.62	1.24	0.23	0.71
	50	0.11	0.22	0.79	0.10		0.58	1.16	0.27	0.64
30-year	0	0.68	1.35	0	1		0.88	1.77	0	1
(2028)	10	0.57	1.14	0.05	0.95		0.83	1.66	0.03	0.98
	20	0.43	0.87	0.22	0.69		0.76	1.53	0.09	0.90
	30	0.29	0.58	0.48	0.41		0.69	1.39	0.17	0.80
	40	0.17	0.33	0.70	0.21		0.63	1.26	0.24	0.72
	50	0.09	0.18	0.84	0.11		0.58	1.17	0.29	0.64

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 28. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (all data points in commercial and recreational CPUE series extending beyond 1992 removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	10179	0.23	---	---	3072	0.40	---	---
r	0.07	0.68	0.09	---	0.08	0.72	0.09	---
C₀	305	0.43	---	---	153	0.60	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	2588	0.40	---	---	483	0.76	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.26	0.33	0.31	---	0.16	0.59	0.27	---
MSC	169	0.43	---	---	54	0.53	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	123	0.53	163	---	27	0.76	48	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.39	0.78	0.07	1		0.27	0.54	0.43	0.99
(2008)	10	0.35	0.70	0.15	0.89		0.23	0.46	0.53	0.71
	20	0.30	0.60	0.28	0.60		0.18	0.37	0.64	0.45
	30	0.25	0.50	0.42	0.34		0.14	0.29	0.73	0.27
	40	0.20	0.41	0.56	0.18		0.11	0.22	0.80	0.17
	50	0.16	0.31	0.68	0.09		0.09	0.17	0.85	0.10
20-year	0	0.54	1.07	0.02	1		0.42	0.83	0.22	1
(2018)	10	0.45	0.91	0.10	0.92		0.32	0.65	0.40	0.76
	20	0.36	0.71	0.28	0.63		0.23	0.46	0.57	0.48
	30	0.25	0.50	0.50	0.36		0.16	0.32	0.71	0.29
	40	0.16	0.32	0.68	0.18		0.11	0.21	0.81	0.17
	50	0.10	0.20	0.82	0.09		0.07	0.14	0.87	0.10
30-year	0	0.65	1.31	0.01	1		0.54	1.09	0.12	1
(2028)	10	0.54	1.08	0.08	0.93		0.41	0.82	0.33	0.77
	20	0.40	0.80	0.29	0.65		0.28	0.56	0.54	0.48
	30	0.26	0.51	0.54	0.36		0.18	0.36	0.70	0.29
	40	0.15	0.29	0.74	0.19		0.11	0.23	0.81	0.17
	50	0.08	0.16	0.86	0.09		0.07	0.14	0.89	0.10

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 28 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (all data points in commercial and recreational CPUE series extending beyond 1992 removed) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	13197	0.42	---	---
r	0.20	0.78	0.22	---
C₀	326	0.43	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	10599	0.48	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.79	0.18	0.79	---
MSC	579	0.74	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	253	0.22	252	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.91	1.82	0	1
(2008)	10	0.90	1.80	0	1
	20	0.89	1.77	0	0.99
	30	0.87	1.75	0	0.99
	40	0.86	1.72	0	0.97
	50	0.85	1.69	0.01	0.95
20-year	0	0.95	1.91	0	1
(2018)	10	0.94	1.88	0	1
	20	0.92	1.84	0	0.99
	30	0.90	1.81	0	0.99
	40	0.88	1.77	0.01	0.97
	50	0.87	1.73	0.01	0.95
30-year	0	0.97	1.95	0	1
(2028)	10	0.96	1.91	0	1
	20	0.94	1.87	0	1
	30	0.92	1.83	0	0.99
	40	0.90	1.79	0.01	0.97
	50	0.87	1.75	0.01	0.95

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 29. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only fishery-independent CPUE series used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review		Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9347	0.25	---	---	3023	0.41	---	---
r	0.09	0.72	0.09	---	0.08	0.74	0.10	---
C₀	394	0.45	---	---	143	0.61	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	1508	0.54	---	---	551	0.89	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.16	0.44	0.23	---	0.18	0.62	0.31	---
MSC	177	0.43	---	---	55	0.53	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	88	0.60	130	---	30	0.76	52	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.28	0.56	0.35	1		0.30	0.61	0.36	0.99
(2008)	10	0.23	0.46	0.53	0.73		0.26	0.53	0.46	0.76
	20	0.17	0.34	0.70	0.35		0.22	0.44	0.57	0.50
	30	0.11	0.22	0.82	0.15		0.18	0.36	0.65	0.33
	40	0.07	0.14	0.90	0.07		0.14	0.29	0.73	0.21
	50	0.04	0.09	0.94	0.03		0.11	0.23	0.79	0.13
20-year	0	0.44	0.89	0.12	1		0.45	0.91	0.18	1
(2018)	10	0.33	0.66	0.37	0.79		0.37	0.73	0.34	0.80
	20	0.20	0.39	0.65	0.38		0.27	0.55	0.51	0.53
	30	0.10	0.20	0.82	0.16		0.20	0.40	0.64	0.34
	40	0.05	0.10	0.91	0.07		0.14	0.28	0.75	0.21
	50	0.03	0.06	0.96	0.03		0.10	0.20	0.82	0.13
30-year	0	0.58	1.17	0.05	1		0.58	1.16	0.10	1
(2028)	10	0.42	0.84	0.29	0.81		0.45	0.91	0.28	0.81
	20	0.23	0.46	0.63	0.39		0.32	0.64	0.48	0.54
	30	0.11	0.21	0.83	0.16		0.22	0.44	0.64	0.34
	40	0.05	0.11	0.92	0.07		0.15	0.30	0.76	0.22
	50	0.03	0.06	0.97	0.03		0.10	0.20	0.84	0.13

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 29 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only fishery-independent CPUE series used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Punt’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	10994	0.51	---	---
r	0.14	0.86	0.17	---
C₀	296	0.41	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	7409	0.72	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.61	0.40	0.70	---
MSC	338	0.87	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	197	0.42	220	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.75	1.51	0.04	1
(2008)	10	0.73	1.47	0.06	0.96
	20	0.71	1.42	0.08	0.91
	30	0.69	1.37	0.10	0.87
	40	0.66	1.33	0.11	0.81
	50	0.64	1.28	0.13	0.74
20-year	0	0.84	1.69	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.81	1.61	0.04	0.96
	20	0.77	1.54	0.07	0.92
	30	0.73	1.46	0.10	0.87
	40	0.69	1.39	0.12	0.82
	50	0.66	1.32	0.15	0.74
30-year	0	0.90	1.79	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.85	1.70	0.04	0.97
	20	0.80	1.60	0.07	0.92
	30	0.75	1.51	0.10	0.87
	40	0.71	1.42	0.13	0.82
	50	0.67	1.33	0.16	0.74

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 30. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only "best" CPUE series [according to one reviewer] used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Trumble’s review		Prager form		Trumble’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	6290	0.48	---	---	3540	0.45	---	---
r	0.33	0.68	---	---	0.09	0.59	---	---
C₀	285	0.35	---	---	171	0.66	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	3192	0.76	---	---	1037	0.84	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.50	0.24	---	---	0.29	0.54	---	---
MSC	397	0.32	---	---	71	0.59	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	364	0.24	---	---	51	0.62	---	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.87	1.73	0	1		0.45	0.91	0.11	1
(2008)	10	0.84	1.68	0	1		0.43	0.85	0.15	0.94
	20	0.81	1.61	0	1		0.39	0.78	0.21	0.81
	30	0.77	1.54	0	1		0.35	0.70	0.29	0.65
	40	0.73	1.46	0	0.90		0.31	0.63	0.36	0.49
	50	0.69	1.37	0	0.89		0.28	0.56	0.44	0.36
20-year	0	0.95	1.91	0	1		0.61	1.22	0.04	1
(2018)	10	0.92	1.84	0	1		0.55	1.10	0.09	0.96
	20	0.88	1.76	0	1		0.48	0.97	0.18	0.82
	30	0.83	1.67	0	1		0.41	0.82	0.29	0.66
	40	0.78	1.57	0	0.90		0.34	0.68	0.40	0.50
	50	0.73	1.45	0.10	0.89		0.28	0.55	0.51	0.37
30-year	0	0.98	1.96	0	1		0.72	1.44	0.02	1
(2028)	10	0.95	1.89	0	1		0.64	1.29	0.07	0.96
	20	0.90	1.81	0	1		0.55	1.10	0.16	0.83
	30	0.86	1.72	0	1		0.46	0.91	0.28	0.67
	40	0.80	1.60	0	0.90		0.36	0.72	0.42	0.51
	50	0.73	1.46	0.11	0.89		0.28	0.56	0.54	0.37

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 30 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only "best" CPUE series [according to one reviewer] used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Trumble’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	11838	0.47	---	---
r	0.16	0.83	---	---
C₀	302	0.42	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	8625	0.62	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.68	0.30	---	---
MSC	411	0.85	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	218	0.33	---	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.82	1.64	0.01	1
(2008)	10	0.81	1.61	0.02	0.99
	20	0.79	1.58	0.02	0.97
	30	0.77	1.53	0.03	0.94
	40	0.75	1.49	0.04	0.89
	50	0.73	1.45	0.05	0.83
20-year	0	0.90	1.79	0	1
(2018)	10	0.87	1.74	0.01	0.99
	20	0.84	1.68	0.02	0.97
	30	0.81	1.62	0.03	0.94
	40	0.78	1.56	0.05	0.89
	50	0.75	1.49	0.07	0.84
30-year	0	0.94	1.87	0	1
(2028)	10	0.90	1.81	0.01	0.99
	20	0.87	1.74	0.02	0.97
	30	0.83	1.66	0.04	0.94
	40	0.79	1.59	0.05	0.89
	50	0.76	1.51	0.08	0.84

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 31. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only "best" CPUE series and those with "data problems" [according to one reviewer] used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Trumble’s review		Prager form		Trumble’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Large coastal				Sandbar
K	9809	0.23	---	---	3558	0.26	---	---
r	0.08	0.70	---	---	0.12	0.38	---	---
C₀	297	0.42	---	---	218	0.50	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	2218	0.43	---	---	846	0.46	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.23	0.34	---	---	0.24	0.34	---	---
MSC	172	0.43	---	---	105	0.48	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	115	0.54	---	---	72	0.43	---	---

		Prager form (Large coastal)					Prager form (Sandbar)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.37	0.73	0.10	1		0.47	0.94	0.01	1
(2008)	10	0.32	0.65	0.21	0.87		0.45	0.90	0.01	0.99
	20	0.27	0.55	0.38	0.57		0.41	0.82	0.03	0.97
	30	0.22	0.44	0.54	0.32		0.38	0.75	0.05	0.93
	40	0.16	0.33	0.69	0.15		0.34	0.68	0.06	0.89
	50	0.12	0.23	0.80	0.07		0.30	0.60	0.08	0.86
20-year	0	0.53	1.05	0.03	1		0.72	1.45	0	1
(2018)	10	0.44	0.88	0.13	0.90		0.68	1.36	0.01	1
	20	0.33	0.66	0.35	0.60		0.62	1.24	0.03	0.97
	30	0.22	0.43	0.59	0.33		0.55	1.11	0.04	0.93
	40	0.12	0.25	0.77	0.16		0.48	0.96	0.06	0.90
	50	0.07	0.14	0.88	0.07		0.40	0.80	0.10	0.86
30-year	0	0.65	1.30	0.01	1		0.87	1.74	0	1
(2028)	10	0.53	1.06	0.11	0.91		0.82	1.65	0.01	1
	20	0.38	0.75	0.35	0.61		0.77	1.53	0.03	0.97
	30	0.22	0.45	0.62	0.34		0.70	1.39	0.05	0.93
	40	0.12	0.24	0.80	0.16		0.61	1.22	0.09	0.90
	50	0.06	0.12	0.90	0.07		0.51	1.01	0.11	0.86

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 31 (continued). Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex, sandbar, and blacktip (only "best" CPUE series and those with "data problems" [according to one reviewer] used) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Trumble’s review
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Blacktip
K	13020	0.43	---	---
r	0.19	0.82	---	---
C₀	312	0.42	---	---
N₁₉₉₈	10212	0.51	---	---
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.76	0.23	---	---
MSC	537	0.80	---	---
RY₁₉₉₈	240	0.27	---	---

		Prager form (Blacktip)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.88	1.76	0	1
(2008)	10	0.87	1.74	0	1
	20	0.86	1.71	0	0.99
	30	0.84	1.68	0.01	0.97
	40	0.83	1.65	0.01	0.95
	50	0.81	1.62	0.02	0.91
20-year	0	0.94	1.87	0	1
(2018)	10	0.92	1.83	0	1
	20	0.90	1.79	0	0.99
	30	0.87	1.75	0.01	0.97
	40	0.85	1.70	0.01	0.95
	50	0.83	1.66	0.02	0.91
30-year	0	0.96	1.92	0	1
(2028)	10	0.94	1.88	0	1
	20	0.92	1.83	0	0.99
	30	0.89	1.78	0.01	0.97
	40	0.86	1.73	0.02	0.95
	50	0.84	1.67	0.03	0.91

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 32. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (with the Early Rec CPUE series only, and with all the other CPUE series except Early Rec) with the Prager form are compared to those reported by one of the reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies are also included.

	Prager form		Prager form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV
	Early Rec only		Other series only
K	13342	0.42	6441	0.48
r	0.21	0.78	0.11	0.78
C₀	329	0.43	265	0.43
N₁₉₉₈	10777	0.47	1886	1.44
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.79	0.17	0.25	0.70
MSC	592	0.73	149	0.79
RY₁₉₉₈	255	0.22	88	0.67

		Prager form (Early Rec only)				Prager form (Other series only)
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.91	1.82	0	1	0.41	0.82	0.17	1
(2008)	10	0.90	1.80	0	1	0.37	0.74	0.28	0.88
	20	0.89	1.78	0	1	0.31	0.62	0.42	0.62
	30	0.88	1.75	0	0.99	0.25	0.51	0.56	0.40
	40	0.86	1.73	0	0.97	0.20	0.40	0.67	0.24
	50	0.85	1.70	0	0.95	0.16	0.32	0.74	0.16
20-year	0	0.96	1.91	0	1	0.59	1.18	0.05	1
(2018)	10	0.94	1.88	0	1	0.50	1	0.17	0.91
	20	0.92	1.85	0	1	0.39	0.77	0.36	0.66
	30	0.91	1.81	0	0.99	0.28	0.55	0.55	0.42
	40	0.89	1.77	0	0.98	0.19	0.39	0.70	0.25
	50	0.87	1.74	0.01	0.95	0.15	0.30	0.78	0.17
30-year	0	0.98	1.95	0	1	0.72	1.43	0.02	1
(2028)	10	0.96	1.92	0	1	0.60	1.20	0.12	0.92
	20	0.94	1.88	0	1	0.45	0.89	0.34	0.67
	30	0.92	1.84	0	0.99	0.30	0.60	0.55	0.43
	40	0.90	1.80	0.01	0.98	0.20	0.40	0.71	0.25
	50	0.88	1.75	0.01	0.95	0.15	0.30	0.79	0.17

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K