Table 7

Table 7. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	EV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	11754	0.16	11804	0.16	11890	0.16
r	0.05	0.50	0.05	0.50	0.05	0.50
C₀	327	0.42	347	0.40	344	0.41
N₁₉₉₈	2081	0.22	2009	0.23	1923	0.24
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.18	0.23	0.17	0.24	0.16	0.25
MSC	143	0.40	145	0.40	144	0.40
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	78	0.45	83	0.43

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.24	0.48	0.32	1		0.25	0.49	0.29	1
(2008)	10	0.20	0.41	0.54	0.73		0.20	0.41	0.54	0.85
	20	0.16	0.32	0.76	0.29		0.16	0.32	0.76	0.35
	30	0.12	0.24	0.89	0.07		0.12	0.23	0.91	0.08
	40	0.08	0.15	0.97	0.01		0.07	0.15	0.97	0.01
	50	0.04	0.08	0.99	0		0.04	0.08	0.99	0
20-year	0	0.35	0.69	0.10	1		0.35	0.70	0.08	1
(2018)	10	0.26	0.52	0.37	0.80		0.26	0.52	0.37	0.85
	20	0.16	0.32	0.71	0.32		0.16	0.32	0.73	0.35
	30	0.07	0.13	0.91	0.08		0.07	0.13	0.92	0.08
	40	0.02	0.03	0.98	0.01		0.02	0.05	0.98	0.01
	50	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0
30-year	0	0.46	0.92	0.04	1		0.46	0.93	0.03	1
(2028)	10	0.33	0.65	0.29	0.82		0.32	0.64	0.28	0.85
	20	0.16	0.33	0.69	0.33		0.16	0.32	0.70	0.35
	30	0.05	0.10	0.91	0.08		0.05	0.10	0.92	0.08
	40	0.01	0.02	0.98	0.01		0.02	0.03	0.98	0.01
	50	0.01	0.01	1	0		0.01	0.02	1	0

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 8. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the large coastal shark complex (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	EV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	11754	0.16	11833	0.19	11915	0.19
r	0.05	0.50	0.05	0.57	0.05	0.57
C₀	327	0.42	358	0.42	355	0.43
N₁₉₉₈	2081	0.22	2003	0.24	1918	0.25
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.18	0.23	0.17	0.25	0.16	0.27
MSC	143	0.40	149	0.43	147	0.43
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	80	0.48	85	0.46

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.25	0.49	0.31	1		0.25	0.50	0.29	1
(2008)	10	0.21	0.42	0.53	0.75		0.21	0.42	0.53	0.83
	20	0.17	0.33	0.75	0.31		0.16	0.33	0.75	0.35
	30	0.12	0.25	0.89	0.09		0.12	0.24	0.89	0.10
	40	0.08	0.16	0.95	0.02		0.08	0.15	0.95	0.02
	50	0.04	0.08	0.98	0		0.04	0.08	0.98	0
20-year	0	0.36	0.72	0.10	1		0.36	0.72	0.11	1
(2018)	10	0.27	0.54	0.36	0.81		0.27	0.53	0.38	0.83
	20	0.17	0.34	0.70	0.35		0.17	0.33	0.71	0.35
	30	0.07	0.15	0.89	0.10		0.08	0.15	0.90	0.10
	40	0.02	0.04	0.97	0.02		0.03	0.06	0.97	0.02
	50	0.01	0.02	0.99	0		0.01	0.03	0.99	0
30-year	0	0.47	0.95	0.04	1		0.47	0.94	0.04	1
(2028)	10	0.34	0.68	0.28	0.82		0.33	0.66	0.30	0.83
	20	0.18	0.36	0.67	0.36		0.17	0.35	0.68	0.35
	30	0.06	0.12	0.89	0.11		0.06	0.13	0.90	0.10
	40	0.02	0.03	0.97	0.02		0.02	0.05	0.97	0.02
	50	0.01	0.02	0.99	0		0.01	0.03	0.99	0

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 9. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	EV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	2870	0.42	3591	0.30	3434	0.42
r	0.21	0.79	0.15	0.70	0.17	0.85
C₀	126	0.56	199	0.39	184	0.53
N₁₉₉₈	941	0.47	796	0.42	887	0.48
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.35	0.37	0.24	0.43	0.29	0.45
MSC	109	0.41	114	0.38	109	0.48
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	79	0.51	85	0.59

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.49	0.99	0.06	1		0.57	1.15	0.06	1
(2008)	10	0.48	0.95	0.08	0.99		0.54	1.09	0.09	1
	20	0.44	0.89	0.11	0.95		0.51	1.03	0.14	0.95
	30	0.41	0.82	0.15	0.88		0.48	0.96	0.18	0.86
	40	0.38	0.75	0.17	0.78		0.45	0.90	0.23	0.74
	50	0.34	0.69	0.21	0.71		0.42	0.84	0.30	0.65
20-year	0	0.71	1.42	0.02	1		0.72	1.45	0.02	1
(2018)	10	0.67	1.34	0.04	0.99		0.68	1.35	0.05	1
	20	0.62	1.24	0.08	0.96		0.63	1.26	0.09	0.95
	30	0.56	1.13	0.12	0.88		0.58	1.15	0.16	0.86
	40	0.5	1.01	0.17	0.78		0.52	1.04	0.23	0.74
	50	0.44	0.88	0.24	0.72		0.47	0.93	0.30	0.65
30-year	0	0.83	1.66	0.01	1		0.82	1.63	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.78	1.57	0.02	1		0.76	1.52	0.03	1
	20	0.73	1.45	0.06	0.96		0.70	1.40	0.07	0.95
	30	0.66	1.33	0.12	0.88		0.64	1.27	0.15	0.86
	40	0.59	1.19	0.18	0.78		0.57	1.13	0.23	0.74
	50	0.52	1.04	0.26	0.72		0.50	1	0.31	0.65

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 10. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the sandbar shark (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	2870	0.42	4063	0.48	4090	0.54
r	0.21	0.79	0.15	0.96	0.16	1.00
C₀	126	0.56	231	0.68	230	0.71
N₁₉₉₈	941	0.47	1051	0.61	1046	0.97
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.35	0.37	0.28	0.48	0.28	0.53
MSC	109	0.41	116	0.52	117	0.55
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	86	0.60	85	0.59

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.52	1.07	0.03	1		0.54	1.08	0.08	1
(2008)	10	0.49	1.01	0.05	0.99		0.51	1.03	0.11	0.99
	20	0.46	0.95	0.09	0.94		0.48	0.97	0.15	0.94
	30	0.42	0.88	0.13	0.85		0.46	0.91	0.20	0.86
	40	0.39	0.82	0.19	0.74		0.43	0.85	0.25	0.77
	50	0.36	0.75	0.24	0.64		0.39	0.79	0.30	0.67
20-year	0	0.69	1.39	0.01	1		0.70	1.40	0.03	1
(2018)	10	0.64	1.30	0.03	0.99		0.66	1.31	0.06	0.99
	20	0.59	1.20	0.06	0.94		0.61	1.22	0.10	0.94
	30	0.53	1.09	0.12	0.85		0.56	1.12	0.16	0.86
	40	0.47	0.98	0.19	0.74		0.51	1.02	0.22	0.77
	50	0.41	0.87	0.27	0.64		0.46	0.91	0.30	0.67
30-year	0	0.81	1.58	0	1		0.80	1.59	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.75	1.48	0.02	0.99		0.75	1.49	0.04	0.99
	20	0.68	1.36	0.05	0.94		0.69	1.38	0.08	0.94
	30	0.60	1.22	0.12	0.85		0.63	1.25	0.15	0.86
	40	0.52	1.08	0.20	0.74		0.56	1.12	0.22	0.77
	50	0.45	0.94	0.30	0.64		0.50	0.99	0.30	0.67

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 11. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using the original importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	EV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	6532	0.29	6990	0.29	6986	0.29
r	0.11	0.70	0.11	0.68	0.11	0.68
C₀	235	0.38	278	0.35	278	0.35
N₁₉₉₈	1441	0.56	1450	0.62	1386	0.65
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.22	0.40	0.20	0.48	0.19	0.52
MSC	157	0.45	159	0.45	160	0.46
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	93	0.58	99	0.55

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.37	0.74	0.15	1		0.38	0.77	0.13	1
(2008)	10	0.33	0.66	0.24	0.94		0.33	0.67	0.23	0.98
	20	0.28	0.57	0.36	0.71		0.28	0.56	0.38	0.80
	30	0.23	0.46	0.49	0.46		0.23	0.46	0.51	0.50
	40	0.18	0.36	0.62	0.26		0.18	0.35	0.63	0.28
	50	0.13	0.27	0.73	0.14		0.13	0.27	0.74	0.15
20-year	0	0.57	1.13	0.03	1		0.58	1.16	0.03	1
(2018)	10	0.49	0.98	0.12	0.97		0.49	0.98	0.12	0.98
	20	0.39	0.78	0.27	0.75		0.39	0.78	0.27	0.80
	30	0.28	0.56	0.46	0.49		0.28	0.56	0.47	0.50
	40	0.19	0.37	0.64	0.27		0.19	0.37	0.66	0.28
	50	0.11	0.23	0.78	0.14		0.12	0.24	0.78	0.15
30-year	0	0.70	1.41	0.01	1		0.72	1.43	0.01	1
(2028)	10	0.61	1.21	0.08	0.98		0.61	1.22	0.08	0.98
	20	0.47	0.95	0.24	0.78		0.48	0.95	0.23	0.80
	30	0.33	0.65	0.45	0.50		0.32	0.65	0.45	0.50
	40	0.20	0.40	0.65	0.28		0.20	0.40	0.67	0.28
	50	0.11	0.23	0.83	0.14		0.12	0.23	0.83	0.15

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K

Table 12. Estimated expected values (EV) of the means and coefficients of variation (CV) of marginal posterior distributions for output parameters from the Bayesian surplus production model analysis. Results for the blacktip shark (alternative catch scenario) with the Prager and discrete forms using a variance expansion factor of 2 for the importance function are compared to those reported in the 1998 SEW and those from two reviewers. Predictions of alternative harvesting policies from the two forms of the model are also included.

	SEW 1998		Prager form		Discrete form
Parameter	EV	CV	EV	CV	EV	CV

K	6532	0.29	12876	0.48	25467	0.66
r	0.11	0.70	0.15	1.26	0.13	0.86
C₀	235	0.38	343	0.40	358	0.40
N₁₉₉₈	1441	0.56	8439	0.75	21058	0.80
N₁₉₉₈/K	0.22	0.40	0.57	0.51	0.71	0.39
MSC	157	0.45	425	0.95	706	0.92
RY₁₉₉₈	---	---	215	0.50	254	0.46

		Prager form					Discrete form
Horizon	TAC¹	N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)		N_fin/K²	N_fin/N_msy	P(N_fin<0.2K)	P(N_fin>N₉₈)
10-year	0	0.71	1.42	0.05	1		0.81	1.62	0.03	0.99
(2008)	10	0.69	1.39	0.08	0.98		0.80	1.59	0.05	0.99
	20	0.67	1.34	0.12	0.91		0.78	1.56	0.07	0.94
	30	0.64	1.29	0.16	0.83		0.76	1.53	0.10	0.88
	40	0.62	1.24	0.20	0.76		0.75	1.49	0.13	0.82
	50	0.60	1.19	0.23	0.70		0.73	1.46	0.14	0.78
20-year	0	0.81	1.62	0.01	1		0.88	1.76	0.01	0.99
(2018)	10	0.78	1.55	0.04	0.99		0.85	1.70	0.02	0.99
	20	0.73	1.47	0.10	0.92		0.82	1.65	0.06	0.94
	30	0.69	1.38	0.15	0.84		0.79	1.58	0.09	0.88
	40	0.65	1.30	0.20	0.77		0.76	1.53	0.13	0.82
	50	0.61	1.22	0.24	0.7		0.74	1.49	0.15	0.78
30-year	0	0.87	1.74	0	1		0.92	1.84	0	0.99
(2028)	10	0.83	1.66	0.03	0.99		0.89	1.78	0.02	0.99
	20	0.78	1.55	0.08	0.92		0.85	1.70	0.05	0.94
	30	0.72	1.44	0.14	0.84		0.81	1.62	0.09	0.88
	40	0.67	1.33	0.20	0.77		0.78	1.55	0.13	0.82
	50	0.62	1.25	0.25	0.70		0.75	1.50	0.16	0.78

¹ Total Allowable Catch policy option expressed as a percentage of the reported 1995 catch

² N_fin/K is the stock abundance in the final year of management (2008, 2018, or 2028) as a percentage of K